Should we buy 2 La Isla Court and sell Austin and Bella Vista? What the numbers say, what the listing is, what it would mean for health and daily life, and what would have to be true to say yes.
At $700K for Austin and $750K for Bella Vista the cash nearly pencils. The prices themselves, the timing for RM, and the untested unknowns are what still say wait. Three reasons, in order of weight.
First, this week: ask Stephanie for a written opinion of value at $750K, and an Austin agent for one at $700K with the mold history disclosed. Those two numbers decide whether this is a plan or a wish. And if someone will really pay $750K for Bella Vista, take it whether or not Taos happens: that is about $240K freed, with the ARM reset coming in 2028.
Then rent, do not buy. Two to three months from February covers the coldest weeks and juniper season. It costs $8K to $15K instead of a couple hundred thousand, it is fully reversible, and it answers the only question that matters: does Lilly feel better there, for real, over weeks? Lilly's practice is already virtual. John can work from anywhere with fiber, and Taos has it.
Meanwhile: finish Edgewood to a certified clearance (needed whether you stay or sell), and sell Bella Vista on its own merits if RM needs the capital, not to fund Taos. If Taos still feels right in April, buy then, with Edgewood settled and a negotiated price. La Isla de Taos has fifteen lots; there will be another house.
Value against debt for each house at the assumptions below. The Taos bar is what you would own on day one if you bought it. Move the sliders in the next section and this redraws.
Everything below recalculates from these assumptions. Defaults are the best current numbers with sources at the bottom. The Edgewood balance is an amortization estimate; the exact figure is on the PennyMac statement.
Where the money comes from and where it goes. Left of zero is money out of your pocket.
Now is Edgewood plus Bella Vista with the Airbnb paying for itself. After is La Isla plus the state income tax you would start paying, spread monthly.
Property tax drops a lot in Taos. New Mexico income tax shows up. At most incomes the second is bigger than the first.
A 2019 Taos Style Builders home in La Isla de Taos, a fifteen-lot development at Upper Ranchitos and Millicent Rogers Road, just outside town limits, with a central meadow and a bosque path along the Río Lucero. Listed August 22 by Berkshire Hathaway Taos. Six days on market, 715 views, 37 saves.
New construction by a known local builder, so no cast iron, no 1940s framing, no mystery walls. Radiant heat means no ducts to grow anything. Dry climate, gas, fiber, a garage, and a small footprint that is cheap to condition. Town is minutes away. South Boundary, Devisadero and the West Rim are out the door for John; Angel Fire Bike Park is 45 minutes.
Flat roof, parapets and canales (the number one water path in Taos homes). The radiant manifold and boiler. Moisture readings in the stucco and at slab edges. The bosque-side lot is nearer the river and cottonwoods than the mesa is, so ask about groundwater and drainage. HOA covenants and finances. A wildfire insurance quote; the Taos watershed is a top-ten fire-risk watershed nationally. And run an ERMI on it, since that is the test you trust.
Plus means it helps. Minus means it costs something. The open circle means nobody knows yet, and it can be found out cheaply by going for a while before buying anything.
| Path | Cash needed now | Monthly | Reversible | What it tests before committing | Timing risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Buy La Isla, sell both | Low. Three transactions and about in friction. | Nothing. Altitude, winter, juniper and the town are all tested after the money is spent. | Sells into two soft markets at once while RM's cash is at its worst. Asking price is at the top of Taos. | ||
| B. Rent a season firstrecommended | $8K to $15K | $8.3K to $10.7K rent $2.5K to $5K plus Edgewood carry |
High. A 2 to 5 month furnished lease. Camino del Monte was $4,950; furnished 3/2s list from about $2,550. | Altitude over weeks, juniper season, winter, work travel, and whether it is Taos you want or just out of the mold. | Low. Bella Vista sells or stays on its own clock. Edgewood gets finished properly either way. |
| C. Finish Edgewood, decide in spring | $15K to $22K already committed |
Not applicable. This is the default. | Whether a properly remediated, dehumidified Edgewood is livable for Lilly. The July report said fix moisture, do not sell on the number. | The risk is that it still is not livable, and another season passes in a house that makes her sick. |
Rebellion: about $1.2M to $1.3M owed to RM, about $150K received. Shu's personal guarantee says half by around September 10. Savings were described on July 31 as close to exhausted; personal money has been covering payroll. Stephanie's own advice on July 24: do not sell Bella Vista now unless the capital is needed elsewhere. It may be needed elsewhere, and elsewhere is RM, not Taos.
What is going right: America.gov confirmed at $500K today with weekly Friday billing. Cybernetics at $440K is waiting on a signature. Arsenals is signed and running. If those hold and Rebellion pays even half, spring 2027 looks very different from August 2026. That is the argument for a season, not a purchase.